Michigan offensive lineman Jake Long will be the No. 1 pick of the NFL Draft on Saturday. There’s no arguing the point after the Miami Dolphins agreed Tuesday to pay him $57.75 million over five years, with $30 million guaranteed.
Whether Long deserves to be the signature selection of 2008 is an entirely different matter, one that will be debated for the next decade — particularly if Darren McFadden, Matt Ryan or Vernon Gholston turns into a Hall of Famer.
“Jake Long is a lock to be a Pro Bowler at right tackle,” Browns general manager Phil Savage said last week. “At left tackle, I think that’s the question that people are going to ask.”
Long is 6-foot-7, 313 pounds and played left tackle the last two years for the Wolverines, earning Big Ten lineman of the year twice. He’s gotten better in pass protection — he allowed only two sacks in his career — but some scouts think he projects best as a run-blocking right tackle.
The Dolphins may choose to play Long at right tackle, but many NFL personnel believe a top-five pick of a lineman must be reserved for a top-flight left tackle — an Orlando Pace, Jonathan Ogden or Tony Boselli — someone who’s going to be a Pro Bowler for 10 years protecting the quarterback’s blindside with the perfect combination of strength and agility.
Savage had a similar decision to make with the third pick last year. He projected Wisconsin’s Joe Thomas as a left tackle, called him the safest choice in the entire draft and pulled the trigger.
“If we take Joe Thomas off the board, he’s got to be our left tackle,” Savage said.
Long and Thomas have drawn consistent comparisons in the buildup to this weekend’s draft, because they have similar body types (athletic, without the large gut common to offensive linemen) and Big Ten backgrounds.
“They are similar in terms of intangibles coming from big programs and successful teams,” Savage said. “Joe’s a little more athletic than Jake. Jake had more of a physical road-paver type block than Joe in the run game.
“You know what you’re getting in Jake Long. He’s one of the more solid players in the draft in terms of you’re not going to swing for the fence and miss.”
With the guaranteed fortunes paid to the top picks, teams can’t afford to whiff. Not only does it cost them millions, it stunts their growth and often leaves them in a more desperate position when the next draft arrives.
At least with “safe, solid” picks like Thomas and Long, the teams are almost certain to be better, even if the players don’t develop into the next Pace and Ogden.
“When you have the first pick and you’ve got $30 million guaranteed tied in, what you want is a Pro Bowl player,” NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock said. “Anything else is a waste of money.
“I’d rather see (Long) go a little bit later in the draft, but if the theory is, ‘Yeah, he’s a Pro Bowl player (at right tackle), we’re not gonna make a mistake,’ I get it.”
Fortunately for the Browns, Thomas proved last season that he’s a legitimate NFL left tackle. He started all 16 games, was part of a line that allowed quarterback Derek Anderson to be sacked just 14 times and went to the Pro Bowl as an alternate.
“Joe Thomas was a great pass-blocking left tackle (in college),” ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr. said. “He stoned everybody. He eliminated everybody. He was unbelievable in that area.”
Savage chose Thomas over running back Adrian Peterson and quarterback Brady Quinn. The Cleveland line had been a weakness for years, and Savage felt it was more important to solidify the interior rather than add a skill player who would be compromised by a subpar line.
The move paid off, as the Browns were able to grab Quinn later in the first round and surprised everyone with a 10-6 season. The Dolphins are coming off a 1-15 year, so 10 wins seem out of the question, but Long looks like a good start to the rebuilding process.
“I really like Jake Long as a football player,” Mayock said. “What I question is whether or not he’s always going to struggle with elite speed on the left side. When you’re the left tackle, you get the best pass rusher 16 weeks in a row.”
Contact Scott Petrak at 329-7253 or spetrak@chroniclet.com.

TOP OFFENSIVE PLAYERS

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan, Boston College (right): Top quarterback in the draft, but he isn’t a franchise savior.
Joe Flacco, Delaware: Small-school background makes him a reach; huge arm makes him worth the risk.
Chad Henne, Michigan: Throws the deep ball well and could be a pleasant surprise at the top of the second round.

Running backs

Darren McFadden, Arkansas: Might be the most gifted athlete in the draft, but off-the-field problems raise serious concerns.
Jonathan Stewart, Oregon: Workhorse back with good strength, vision and character.
Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois: Very muscular and productive, but must prove he’s motivated.

Receivers

Devin Thomas, Michigan State: Raw, but has tremendous physical tools and upside.
Limas Sweed, Texas: Ideal size and leaping ability, good hands and enough speed to make an impact.
Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma: Size and production are attractive, but inconsistency makes him a risk.
• The first round could pass without a tight end being selected.

Linemen

Jake Long, T, Michigan: Might be better suited for the right side, because he’s a better run blocker than pass protector.
Ryan Clady, T, Boise State: Long arms and good footwork; may be the best left tackle in the draft.
Jeffrey Otah, T, Pittsburgh: A physical presence who played well against good competition.
• A down year for centers and guards.

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