Remember the dramatic end to last year’s college football season? The national title chances for Ohio State and LSU looked doomed, until a series of unexpected upsets resurrected those teams and eventually matched them in the national title game.
If you liked last year’s twists and turns, chances are that this year will see even more corkscrews. If anything, 2007’s convoluted Bowl Championship Series situation might look simple compared with the drama likely to unfold in the next couple of weeks.
Last year, the main BCS problem became one of finding two teams worthy of playing in the championship game. This year, the issue is trying to choose from among several highly qualified teams.
In some respects, the picture is fairly clear-cut — if the current top teams win out. In that case, it is likely that the BCS championship will feature one team from the Big 12 versus the winner of the Southeastern Conference championship.
But the SEC contenders — top-ranked Alabama and No. 4 Florida — first must get past fierce in-state rivals this week. Alabama plays disappointing Auburn on Saturday and Florida plays up-and-down Florida State. If both emerge unscathed, the winner of the Dec. 6 SEC title game likely clinches a BCS spot.
Sorting out the Big 12, on the other hand, might take a Ph.D.
Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech each have one loss in the South Division. Oklahoma lost to Texas, Texas lost to Texas Tech and Tech was crushed 65-21 last week by Oklahoma.
Of those three, Oklahoma has the toughest chore this weekend, playing at dangerous Oklahoma State on Saturday. Texas didn’t have much trouble with 4-8 Texas A&M on Thursday night, and Texas Tech should get past Baylor on Saturday.
If one of those teams loses this week, the South representative in the Big 12 championship will be determined by the head-to-head result of the remaining two. But if the Sooners, Longhorns and Red Raiders all win, determining which team will face Missouri will be loaded with controversy.
In the event of a three-way tie, the Big 12 tiebreaker would come down to the BCS standings, which incorporates poll voters and computer rankings. Right now, Texas is ranked second in the BCS, narrowly ahead of Oklahoma.
Assuming a Texas Tech win over Baylor, Texas needs Oklahoma to beat Oklahoma State to maintain a three-way tie to have a chance to reach the Big 12 championship. But a lopsided Oklahoma win could give the Sooners a sufficient boost to launch them past the Longhorns in the BCS rankings.
In other words, the Longhorns would love nothing more than an unimpressive Oklahoma victory.
If that’s not confusing enough, it only gets potentially more complicated a week later. Say, for the sake of argument, that Oklahoma or Texas loses to Missouri. Might the team that doesn’t get the chance to play in the Big 12 championship qualify for the national title game? After all, the Big 12, especially teams in the South Division, can make a case that theirs is the toughest conference in the country.
Or consider a team like Southern California. Its only loss came to Oregon State, which will go to the Rose Bowl if it beats Oregon on Saturday. The Trojans, who soundly beat Ohio State, could make a decent case for themselves.
And what about unbeaten Utah and Boise State, neither of which plays in a BCS conference?
All the uncertainty has put coaches in the uncomfortable position of feeling they have to lobby for their own teams. Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops talked up his team’s credentials after last week’s victory over Texas Tech, though he has since decided to clam up.
“There’s arguments for and against everybody — not just us but anyone with one loss,” he said.
Stoops turned down a chance to vote in the USA Today coaches’ poll, which is factored into the BCS standings. He said this week that he didn’t want to explain his rationale because it would be a distraction.
Asked if he regrets not having a vote now, Stoops replied, “Probably.”
Florida’s Urban Meyer does have a vote — he said he took note of Oklahoma’s decisive victory last week — but said he’s glad the SEC doesn’t have BCS standings involved in his conference’s tiebreaker.
“To have a voter in Oregon or Texas or San Diego or New York City make a decision about whether or not you go to a championship, boy, that’s tough duty,” he said.
Texas coach Mack Brown also has a vote, though he demurred when asked about his rankings. Like Meyer, he’s uncomfortable with the role BCS standings have in possibly determining the outcome of the South battle.
He said it’s a problem “when we’re having voters that we don’t know, and we’re having computers that weren’t at the game, and we’re asking coaches to run up the score to get more style points.”
Brown faced some criticism four years ago for touting his team’s credentials for a BCS bowl.
“I was (called) a politician and a whiner,” he said. “Now what the system is making coaches talk about why their teams should be voted in, and that’s very unfair to the coaches, in my estimation.”
The solution, to Brown and many others, is obvious, though an impossibility this year.
“I think the whole thing screams for a playoff,” he said. “If we win and Oklahoma wins and one of us gets left out of the Big 12 championship or one of us gets left out of the BCS, what a crying shame. For everybody.
“If you look at the first eight teams, there is a reason to say this would be the year we would have the greatest playoff in college football (history) because there will be teams that are going to be left out. USC may have to be an at-large to get into the BCS and they’ve got one of the great teams.”  

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